Abstract

In this study, we used a Bayesian mixture model (BMM) to monitor water surface areas and estimate water levels in Yeongcheon Dam through Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery. Reservoirs serve vital functions such as flood control, drought mitigation, and ecosystem support, highlighting the importance of precise monitoring of their water surface and level variations, especially in the context of climate change and increased human impact. The BMM method was employed to accurately delineate water boundaries, benefiting from SAR’s capability to capture data regardless of weather conditions. Regression analysis was conducted between the extracted water surface area and observed water levels to create a predictive model, yielding a highly accurate equation with an R² core of 0.981 on the test set. This result indicates a strong correlation between water surface area and water level, affirming the model’s reliability in estimating water levels based solely on surface area data. One of the key findings of this study is that even with a 10 m spatial resolution, reliable water level inferences can be made using water surface area as a proxy. The mean absolute error values obtained validate the model’s capability to monitor water level fluctuations with a satisfactory degree of accuracy. Despite limitations in detecting narrow tributaries or other small-scale features due to SAR resolution, the model performs well overall in monitoring broad water bodies. These findings underscore the potential of Sentinel-1 SAR data for effective reservoir monitoring, especially where real-time water level data may be lacking. For future research, higher-resolution data or complementary algorithms may further enhance detection accuracy for smaller and more complex water features, contributing to more refined water resource management strategies.

• Keywords: Synthetic aperture radar, Sentinel-1, Waterbody, Water level, Reservoir